Unintended Consequences

In their opposition to President Trump, the congressional Democrats have focused thus far on what must be an exceedingly satisfying strategy for them; delay. It was that same strategy that Mitch McConnell used to devastating effect in the first years of the Obama administration, ensuring that the Obama team could not hit the ground running and masking a year of significant accomplishment behind a wall of intransigence and partisan rancor. While the delay tactic did not succeed in preventing an overwhelmingly Democratic congress from moving forward, the constant drumbeat did whip up the Republican base into a frenzy that manifested itself at raucus townhalls and was fully realized in an overwhelming victory for the GOP in the midterm elections of 2010.

Without a doubt, that is what Schumer and company hope to accomplish in their favor over the next year and a half. Given the testy town halls congressional Republicans are already enduring, Trump's historically bad approval ratings, and the disorganization of the Trump administration to date, it would seem that they are off to a good start. Yet, I am skeptical that they appreciate the degree of the difference between the Obama and Trump administrations to this point. The premise of the Obama adminsitration was the use of the system as it existed to improve social conditions. It required adequate staffing and a respect for the process. The Trump administration proceeds from the assumption that the entire political establishment - bureaucracy, intelligentsia, media, and elected officials - is the enemy.

An unintended consequence of the delaying tactics employed by congressional Democrats has been the utter inability of the bureaucracy to fight back against the inner circle of Trump loyalists, Bannon, Miller, and Kushner in particular, who have worked agressively to undermine it. The State Department is brutally understaffed at the highest levels, and even then-Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson was uninformed about the travel orders that were the hallmark of Trump's second week in office. Professional diplomats learned about Trump's casual abandonment of America's commitment to a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as he was talking about it on the news. All of this is consistent with what is already a well-documented conflict between Trump and the security apparatus.

What is less open but no less real is the degree to which the traditional operation of the entire federal bureaucracy is currently being bypassed. Neither the relevant departments of government nor the congress were consulted in the drafting of the early executive orders. Several foreign governments are being told to communicate directly with Kushner, who has acquired a free-ranging foreign policy portfolio without any clearly defined role within the White House. He and Bannon have already created and staffed a think tank within the White House called the Strategic Initiatives Group, tasked with long term policy planning in areas from national security to infrastructure and unemployment. While it will not be involved in the day-to-day grit of government, it provides an alternative group of policy advisors for a White House that distrusts the existing structure. They are purposefully circumventing the cabinet process.

Bannon, Miller, and Kushner have moved quickly to solidify their influence over the direction of the White House while most of the important positions in the "offical" government remain unfilled due to the delaying tactics of congressional Democrats. It may seem as if the delay is denying Trump important advisors at a critical juncture in his administration, but I have some fears that it is empowering Trump's already extremely influential inner circle. That group, make no mistake, is significantly more extreme and more dangerous in terms of both politics and policy than his cabinet nominees. The cabinet nominations were made more to placate the Republican party than to exercise decisive policy influence. Everything about Trump's history and psychology suggests that he depends almost solely on a small, tight-knit group of advisors and is biased toward people with direct access to him on a regular basis. Cabinet secretaries are far more distant than his personal staff. Their only influence comes from the institutional weight of their departments, which they cannot weild before confirmation. By the time the cabinet is installed, the power dynamics of this administration will be set for some time.

It may be that the increase in progressive activism and the pressure on congressional Republicans that the persistent opposition is generating will, ultimately, be worth giving the White House the upper hand on the bureaucracy in the executive power struggle that is ongoing. But Trump will almost certainly be in office for four years, perhaps eight. His closest advisors have made it clear that they regard any institutional presence in the capital as the opposition. Their ideas are dangerous, both at home and abroad. Any strategy which, even unintentionally, empowers them to the detriment of existing policymaking channels makes me deeply uneasy.