The Battle and the War

After a whirlwind first two weeks in which he seemed determined to do whatever he wanted as fast as he could, President Trump has encountered a stiff resistance. The Women's March, large spontaneous protests against the travel ban, and a Democratic minority in the Senate that has ground the confirmation process nearly to a halt have all taken their toll. The President's approval ratings are abysmal for this early in his tenure, and some discontent has emerged within the congressional Republican Party.

In a future post I intend to analyze the future of the opposition, in particular its demographic divide and the need for intense coordination across groups to maintain focus and some unity. For the moment though, I would like to inject a note of caution into the exuberance - not to say schadenfreude - that has crept into the discussion.

Mr Trump has had a bad week, that much is beyond dispute. That being said, in the last year he has had a number of the worst political weeks in living memory. His success in spite of those weeks speaks to an important part of how he is able to survive his extreme and controversial statements. Trump refuses to give an inch. Backtracking gives the opposition more room to move in. Instead, he stands his ground and is wounded but by his very intransigence succeeds in muddling the issue enough to avoid a clear social verdict against him. On every issue, large and small, extreme or mundane, Trump asks his supporters "who are you going to believe, them or me?" It may seem absurd for someone with Trump's congenital disdain for facts to ask that question, but that point of view fails to reckon with the visceral distrust of the media and political establishment among much of America, and not just his supporters. When you believe that there is an active attempt by much of the world to deceive you, fact and fiction become much trickier concepts.

Trump is employing the same strategies that allowed him to survive the brutal campaign now that he is president. Faced with bad poll numbers he complains that the polls are rigged - a point his supporters can view with credibility given the failure of professional polling to predict his victory. When questioned about the legal merits and utility of his travel ban, he attacks judges who issue adverse rulings in sharply personal terms and claims that the media is covering up terrorist attacks. He is refusing to give an inch. Instead of confronting criticism directly, he makes an outrageous assertion that by its very implausibility changes the subject from a question of fact to competing claims. That allows him to transform what should be universally condemned actions into questions of party loyalty.

By repeatedly employing time-honored tactics, Trump is attempting to do what he has done to this point - outlast his opposition. The successes of the protests and the Democrats in the Senate this week are not to be belittled or discounted, but they should not be confused for victory. Trump still has substantial advantages in terms of both the office he holds and the fact that he will hold that office for another four years. Endurance will be the factor that determines whether this week is seen as the beginning of a successful attempt to assert American values currently under siege or as a false spring before Trump outmaneuvered his enemies. More to come on that later.